Defending Chase Headley on his Birthday

Happy Birthday Chase!

There is only one person that has lived that has lived up to the moniker "savior." And even He has his detractors.

Chase Headley was cursed with being presented to the San Diego fan base as a savior to a struggling offensive lineup. Headley was the 2007 Texas League Player of the Year and was considered one of the top prospects in the Padres organization. A 2nd round pick out of the University of Tennessee, success followed Chase Headley at every level.

On June 15, 2007, thanks to an injury to Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chase Headley was brought up to start at third base. He was hitting .357 at San Antonio at the time. He quickly obtained the moniker "savior" despite the organizations (and common sense) best attempts to lower expectations. He made his Major League debut in Wrigley Field in 2007, when he played 8 games. He was brought up again in 2008 (June 17th) to start a game at Old Yankee Stadium. Last year, when the Padres were bringing up Anthony Rizzo, I wrote about the fallacy of putting the level of expectations that we as fans did on players like Headley and Rizzo.

The takeaway? Headley wasn't a savior. He was simply an above-average baseball player. But to a fan base expecting the Bryce Harper of San Diego, there was no greater crime. And it is a crime that Chase Headley continues to pay for.

In 2011, Chase Headley finished in the Top 10 of 3rd basemen in the following categories: AVG (10th), OBP (3rd),SB (3rd), BB (7th), RUNS CREATED (9th).

Is he a power threat? Not really. Though people whose view of baseball is as regimented as a blueprint assume he should be since he plays a corner infield position. Bud Black often uses Headley in power positions in the lineup, though admittedly, who else should bat 3rd or 4th on this team right now? Yet what Headley does do, and does it well, is get on base. In a park and with a lineup that will not produce many 3-run HRs, the Padres need to manufacture runs to win. And you can't manufacture a run without having people on base. For as much debate (read: bitching) there is about the park and its dimensions, Chase Headley is a rare player who can and has had offensive success in Petco.

Of course, if you only view offensive success in HRs and RBI, I see why your disappointed. I also see you have a painfully narrow view of what a successful baseball player looks like. While HRs are not the be all, end all, RBI is as imperfect a stat as W are for a pitcher.

The Padres have many holes to fill. Middle infield, corner outfield, half the starting staff is injured. Let's not go creating problems where they don't exist. Chase Headley is one of only a few players that the Padres have that produce consistently, are durable, plays solid defense, and is homegrown (for whatever value you put on that).

Imagine a world in which Chase Headley was not presented as the savior of a franchise, but simply a minor league prospect brought up to replace an injured starter. Consider how much leeway you give Anthony Bass or Wieland. And then ask yourself why unrealistic expectations cloud your opinion of one of the few bright spots on this Padres roster.

Extend Chase Headley and build a lineup around him, Maybin and Alonso. But if you think Headley is part of the problem, I'm not sure we are watching the same games.

Headley had the audacity of not being Brooks Robinson. For this, some fans will never come around to him. But if your expectations are that high, strap in friend, because life is going to be really disappointing.

On Fandom In Dark Times

So, the Padres aren't very good this year. At least so far anyway. Who knows what the rest of the season holds? But one thing is sure, this incarnation of Padres baseball through 3 weeks has not been the poetry that Annie Savoy spoke of.

This sloppy start has lead to understandable frustration. It's one thing to lose. It's quite another to lose in the manner and fashion the Padres have. The Padres are 5th in MLB in strikeouts (I was mildly stunned to learn there are 4 teams who strike out more. If you are curious, they are: St. Louis, NYM, Houston, and Arizona. I suppose there is something to take from this that the Top 5 teams in strikeouts are all National League. I just don't know what that is.) and lead the league in errors. With a young team with limited resources, this is not a recipe for success. And makes losing in this fashion that much more frustrating.


Which has lead some fans to declare that they will no longer support this team until a better product is placed on the field. This is not the first nor will it be the last time a fanbase will make such a declaration. The idea is based in capitalist ideology. Baseball is a product, we are the consumers, thus if we are upset with the product we as consumers will stop purchasing said product until it is fixed. And while that makes perfect sense in a consumer based economy, it sadly makes next to no sense in sports.


For example. Let's say there is a great Thai restaurant in your neighborhood. You love this place, order the same thing every time, and every time it hits the spot. Then they change chefs. And the Tom Yum isn't as good anymore and the Gra Pow isn't as spicy and so on. So you stop going, perhaps post a scathing review on Yelp that longs for the chef of yore. In that scenario, there is another Thai restaurant 5 miles away. You have options.


There aren't options for fans. I'm a Padres fan. Have been since I was cognitively aware of baseball. I've never been a "fan" of another team. There have been teams I liked, or enjoyed rooting for provided that rooting interest did not interfere with the Padres. But no team that I have had an emotional connection to as I do with the Padres. Because ultimately that's what sports are. They are emotional connections. Why do you get so upset that you are near inconsolable when your team loses in heartbreaking fashion? Because this is more than a consumer based product. This is deeper. It matters in ways restaurants, soda, electronics and shoes never will. Other than my parents, there is nothing in this world that I've known and cared about for a longer period of time then the Padres.


It is for this reason that I cannot simply turn my back on them when they struggle. Because, unlike the Thai restaurant, there isn't another baseball team nearby that I can get the same experience. As frustrating and, at times, demoralizing as losing is, the reason it bothers me and matters to me so much is because I care. Because I'm a fan. If I stopped going, stopped watching the games on television and stopped wearing their apparel, that loss would far outweigh the frustration I feel when watching them today.


I choose to continue to attend games and watch games, even if I'll be sulking during most of them. Because it's what I've always done. And even in losing, I like to go to the games. I like watching the games on television.

Silver Linings on Opening Day

I've been accused of being an optimist and an apologist when it comes to the Padres. Guilty on both counts. When Conan O'Brien signed off from NBC for the last time, amid one of the strangest controversies in television history, he said this:

"Please don't be cynical. I hate cynicism -- it's my least favorite quality and it doesn't lead anywhere."

That's a lesson we could all stand to heed after Opening Day.

Yes, the Padres lost. Yes, Volquez walked in 2 runs which ultimately proved to be decisive. And yes, the Padres committed 3 errors, an "accomplishment" that was as rare as a unicorn last year.

But if you choose to draw sweeping conclusions from one game or have chosen cynicism over optimism over one day, then you don't get the point of Opening Day at all. Opening Day is for new beginnings. Everyone is still in it, everyone has a chance. Sure, it's unrealistic to expect a World Series parade in November down J street this year, but that doesn't mean we can't at least enjoy the fantasy for a little bit longer.

Ownership is in upheaval, they have the lowest payroll in baseball and have jettisoned 3 of their best and most popular players in the past 2 years. So yes, there are real reasons to be cynical. A 5-3 loss to the Dodgers on Opening Day is not one of them. With that being said, here are the silver linings from Opening Day. Deep breaths everyone, we got 161 of these to go:

- The first 3 innings of Edison Volquez: He lost his control in the 4th. In part due to a shrinking strike zone but Volquez was unable to mentally handle being squeezed. But before that, the guy was lights out. He was both high risk/high reward on Opening Day but I was encouraged by the high reward part. As he becomes more comfortable in Petco and a year with Balsley, I'm confident that the first 3 innings of Volquez will be more the guy we see.

- Cam Maybin: Boom Stick! 7th longest HR in Petco Park history. Win or lose, that was just a fun moment.

- Yonder Alonso: Got robbed of a base hit by Dee Gordon. But he hit the ball well. And played a pretty nice first base I thought.

- Jesus Guzman: 2 out hits will get you to Heaven. Got the Padres on the board for the first time this year with his 2-out double. He is suspect in the field without question. But that guy can straight out hit.

- It's Freaking Opening Day: CALM DOWN! The Padres aren't going to walk in 2 runs and commit 3 errors in a game very often. Unfortunately it came on Opening Day where there is a bigger microscope then normally. But despite falling behind 5-1, the Padres were able to make it a game.

Finally I leave you with this: There were 7 games played yesterday. And except for one that went 16 innings, more runs were scored in the Padres vs Dodgers game then any other game.

10 (Not So) Bold Predictions for the 2012 Padres Season

So here we are. It feels like it was just yesterday that we were watching the Cardinals somehow overtake the Rangers in Game 6 on their way to a World Series title. Since that time, Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes and CJ Wilson have all changed teams. Somebody's fever dream came to life in center field in Miami. And the Padres changed GM's and, soon enough, owners.

With the 2012 regular season mere hours away (for those of us in the Western Hemisphere anyway), here are 10 predictions, hopes, thoughts and rambles for the 2012 San Diego Padres. In no particular order. Other then this is the order I thought of them.

10) Andrew Cashner will be the closer by the end of the season.
Huston Street is the highest paid player on this team right now.

I'll give you a moment to let that sink in.

Welcome back. Street has not been great in Spring though I think he will settle in fine with Petco. I'm more basing this on the likelihood that, if the Padres are not in a division or wild card race come the trade deadline, Street, the highest valued Padre on the roster will likely be jettisoned to a contender in need. Which leaves Cashner and his 103 MPH fastball with an opening. I just don't think Byrnes traded the top prospect in the system for a middle reliever.

9) I will have no more than 3 rants about the Sunday giveaway being only for kids.
SERIOUSLY!?!?!? Like a grown man wouldn't enjoy a Padres Hot Wheels car or lunch box? Ugh, let's move on.

8) The Padres will have more than 1 All-Star.
My money right now would be on Maybin and Luebke. Both players are young and on the precipice of breaking out. The starting pitching in the National League is deep so it's a tough group to crack for Luebke, but as is typical many will pull out of the ASG for various reasons.

And speaking of Maybin

7) Cameron Maybin will become your favorite Padre.
If he isn't already, the fact that Maybin will be here for the long haul will certainly endear him to a fan base that has seen favorites like Peavy, Gonzalez and Bell leave San Diego. Maybin becomes the face of the on-field product. He's personable, funny, and makes highlight reel catches in CF. You will own his jersey by Aug. 1.

6) Orlando Hudson will say something stupid via Twitter.
This isn't really a bold prediction. This is more the equivalent of picking the #1 seed to beat the #16 seed. Yeah, you got that one right. But so did everyone else.

5) Zou Bisou Bisou will be someone's walkup music.
If wishing made it so. Sidenote: Did Betty Francis get to test out the Hodad's stand at Petco early?

4) The Swinging Friar will finally be recognized as the best mascot in baseball.
Even in the worst of times, the Swinging Friar makes me smile. He's hilarious. He's fun. He is what going to baseball games is about.

And he has a Frankenstein version of himself.

3) The Padres will reclaim the Vedder Cup.
Last year was a poor showing. A poor, poor showing indeed. 1-5 against the hated Mariners. And the 1 came on a 1-0 win with Maybin reaching base on a 3 ball walk. Revenge shall be ours. Or, you know, a .500 record would suffice.

2) The Padres will throw a no-hitter and hit for the cycle.
I make this prediction every year so I can't take too much credit for when this finally happens. But it's statistically crazy that it hasn't happened yet. I wrote about the Padres no-hitter woes last year. One day, it's going to happen. I just hope I'm not shopping in a Costco when it does.

My picks this year: Stauffer (No-Hitter); Maybin (Cycle)

1) The Padres will struggle to start the season but make things interesting in June.
The beginning of the season is not kind to the Padres. Outside of a ton of NL West games, the Padres face Philadelphia, Washington, Milwaukee, and Anaheim.

But then May 24th comes along. And the New York Mets. Followed by the Cubs then a June where they take on Seattle 6 times, Oakland, Houston and Colorado. If the Padres can tread water for the first two months, a strong June will make them, if not contenders, then at least interesting come the All Star Break.

MLB Prop Bets 2012

If you follow this blog or its related Twitter feed, you may notice that I like sports gambling. I like doing it, though my trips to Vegas are fewer and farther between these days. But I like knowing what the odds are, how the odds shift based on various pieces of information coming out. And I love me some props. Prop bets are both fun and sometimes goofy (this past Super Bowl had a prop for how many times Giselle Bundchen would be shown during the game). Last year I wrote the first annual Left Coast Bias MLB Prop Post.

Last year I went 4-4. Respectable, but we can do better.

As always, this is for entertainment purposes only.

Who Will Hit Most HR's in 2012?
My Pick: Matt Kemp 18/1
Why? Kemp finished 3rd last year in MLB in HR with 39. This was also good enough for best in the National League. Despite that, you are getting 18/1 for him to lead the league this year. While Bautista has won this two years in a row now, getting 18/1 on a player as good as Kemp is a value bet.

Adrian Gonzalez BA O/U .305
My Pick: Over
Why? Adrian Gonzalez saw a 40 point increase in BA in his first year in Boston. While his power did not see the uptick many predicted, Gonzalez still proved he was one of the best hitters in baseball. Caution however, that prior to last year that last time Gonzalez hit over .300 was 2006. That being said, I'll take my chances with the smaller ballpark and the protection throughout the lineup.

Justin Verlander SO O/U 225.5
My Pick: Over
Why? Here is Verlander's last three seasons strikeout totals since the Tigers stopped limiting his innings: 269, 219, 250. Once out of three seasons he went under, and that time he only went under by 6 SO. The two seasons he went over he went WAY over. I'll bank on those seasons.

Matt Kemp O/U HR 33.5
My Pick: Over
Why? Bautista hit 43 HR's last year to lead MLB. If I'm picking Kemp to do that this year, I have to believe he goes over 33.5.

Cameron Maybin Total SB O/U 34.5
My Pick: Under
Why? Maybin stole 40 bases last season. His previous high in the Majors? 9. We know Maybin can run. We know the Padres like to run. But 35 stolen bases is a ton. More a hunch then anything though wouldn't be shocked if Maybin matched 40 again.

Huston Street Total Saves O/U 30.5
My Pick: Under
Why? Andrew. Cashner. Whether Street is traded or not, I think there is a better than outside shot that Cashner is the closer by the end of the season. Street has been struggling in Spring Training. The argument for the over is, of course, the fact that the Padres don't play many high scoring games. Meaning they have ample chances for saves. It's just a matter of who will receive those saves.

San Diego Padres Regular Season Wins O/U 73.5
My Pick: Over
Why? Because I'm a sucker. But seriously. The Padres won 71 games last season despite the Brad Hawpe and Ryan Ludwick experience, and sudden down year from Mat Latos, and essentially no offense. However, their Pythogorean W/L was 79-83. This year, this team has the chance to be sneaky decent. A lot of young, highly touted young players. If Headley and Venable breakout, if Maybin continues to improve, if Luebke is the ace people think he can be, if Alonso is as advertised at first, etc etc. In a worst case scenario, this team wins 71 games like last year. Considering how many close games they play, sheer luck could increase a 71 win season to a 74 win season. A few things break the right way and this is a .500 team primed for 2013.

And finally...

Odds to Win World Series: San Diego Padres 70/1

Sometimes you have to put your money where your mouth is. You just never know:

The MegaMillion Owner

So, you won $640 million in the Mega Millions. Congratulations.

Thanks to a PR blitz and instant celebrity, your purchase of the San Diego Padres for $612 million has been quickly approved by MLB owners and Bud Selig.

What's the first thing you do as new owner of the San Diego Padres? I asked Twitter and Facebook for some ideas. Their thoughts:

- Huge Dubstep Party on the infield. (No word on whether this was during a game or not. If during the game, the dancing groundskeeper is going to be psyched.)

- Bring back the home plate and wave logo.

- Bring back the brown. (Of course.)

- Multiple responses for bringing in the fences. (Even more predictable.)

- Craft beer in all concessions.

- Providing the Swinging Friar the luxurious life he deserves. (I'm as pro-Friar as possible. I applaud this idea.)

But perhaps my favorite, and let's be honest, the most truthful came from Woe, Doctor!:

@LeftCoastBias If somebody replies w/anything other than "pencil myself in as an Opening Day starter" they're lying.

— Woe, Doctor! (@woedoctor) March 30, 2012

As for me, well, I don't know if I'd want to take the mound. Though my 57 MPH "fastball" would keep hitters off balance. For about 3 minutes. But I wouldn't mind taking a few cuts in a Spring Training game ala Billy Crystal.

I'd also get to do the play-by-play whenever I wanted. And probably screen The Dark Knight on the Jumbotron. And buy the Delorean from Back to the Future and use it as the bullpen car.

You know, normal stuff.

What would you do?

A Rising Tide Floats All Boats

According to Forbes Magazine, the Los Angeles Dodgers are valued at $1.4 billion, second only to the New York Yankees.

So by that measurement, the Guggenheim Capital group and their most prominent (though not main) member Magic Johnson, got quite a deal.

But by any other measure, $2 billion for a professional sports franchise is an unbelievable, perhaps outrageous, amount of money to spend. Yesterday the Los Angeles Dodgers became the most expensive sports franchise in North America and the record setting $2 billion price tag more than doubled the previous MLB record ($845 million by the Ricketts family in purchasing the Chicago Cubs).

This is the ARod contract of purchasing sports franchises. It's outrageous but it also sets a new bar for the valuation of a sports franchise. The question of whether the Dodgers are in fact worth this amount of money is impossible to answer right now. They are without question one of the storied franchises in baseball. They have just signed a new television contract which has rapidly increased their value. Frank McCourt is no longer an albatross around the franchises neck (though he is looming right outside the stadium in the parking lot). But they are the second most interesting baseball team within a 30 mile radius and their popularity is paltry in comparison to that of the Lakers and, this year, the Clippers. All of that is likely to change.

But what does this purchase price mean for the rest of baseball? As you are likely aware if you are reading this blog, Jeff Moorad stepped down as CEO of the Padres last week, effectively ending the layaway plan purchase Moores had set up. Per the North County Times, the Moorad group can still complete the purchase the team by 2014. Though it would seem a more likely scenario is that both John Moores and the Group Formerly Known as the Moorad Group will attempt to find one buyer for all 100% of the ownership stake. If you were John Moores, and the team roughly 100 miles north of you just sold for $2 billion, suddenly the landscape has changed.

The Padres are no doubt more valuable then they were in 2009. The new television deal could be worth close to $1 billion over 20 years. Forbes Magazine has valued the team at $458 million, up 13% from last year, thanks in part to the television deal. The Padres are poised to be contenders in the near future, and have very little committed money to the current on the field product.

Tom Krasovic tweeted last night that an MLB insider said the Padres price could reach $700 million due to the Dodgers price. Unrealistic? Who's to say? The landscape has changed. What seems to be clear is this? John Moores sold the Padres for $525 million in 2009. He will certainly receive more than that this time around.